Friday, December 19, 2008

LCD TV Revenues And Sales Expected To Fall

DisplaySearch has revised its TV market forecast for 2009, now estimating that worldwide LCD TV revenues are expected to fall year-on-year for the first time since LCD TV was launched in 2000.

Blaming ongoing economic turmoil which is unlikely to improve in 2009 DisplaySearch estimated revenues could fall as much as 16% on year to $64 billion in 2009, and total TV revenues will fall 18% on year to $88 billion. DisplaySearch expects that 2009 will be the most difficult year yet for the TV industry and supply chain.

The LCD TV market is expected to reach 102.2M units in 2008, which would be 29% Y/Y growth; this is a reduction of 3.6M from the Q3’08 forecast for 2008. In 2009, the LCD TV market is forecast to reach 119.9M units, for 17% Y/Y growth; this has been reduced by 11.5M units from the Q3’08 forecast for 2009. Unit growth in developed regions such as Japan, North America and Western Europe will be just 2% Y/Y, largely due to the impact of the economic crisis.

DisplaySearch forecasts that LCD TV growth in emerging regions will be 45% Y/Y in 2009, lower than the 68% Y/Y growth in 2008. As CRT TV penetration in these emerging regions is 60-70%, the shift to FPD TV continues to be driven by price reductions.

DisplaySearch’s total global TV forecast is 206.4M units in 2008, up 3% Y/Y; 2009 shipments are forecast to be 205.3M units, down 1% Y/Y—the first time in recent memory that there has been a drop in unit shipments.

In addition to a reduction of units, the revenue decline in 2009 will affect the TV supply chain in 2009. Without revenue growth, top brands may aim to increase their market share to maintain revenue, causing challenges for lower-tier players. TV brands, as well as panel manufacturers and material suppliers, will need to aggressively increase 1080p penetration (even for 32"/37" sizes), and accelerate penetration of 120 Hz and differentiated products such as Ultra Slim FPD TVs in order to maintain ASPs.

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